African fuel vehicle bans: Who's next?

From the newsletter

Ethiopia surprised the world by banning the import of fuel vehicles earlier this year, and Rwanda followed with a fuel motorcycles ban. Now, stakeholders are asking if further countries will follow suit. Industry experts suggest Ghana may be next. But with growing interest in EVs across the continent, it may not be the only follower.

• Ghana will hold elections next month, and the presidential aspirants want to cosy up to the electorate. The current vice president, who is a presidential candidate, has promised to electrify public transport.

• The government plans to have 100 electric buses by the end of 2024 and yesterday received the first batch as a show of commitment.

More details

• For a country to consider banning the importation of fuel vehicles, several factors need to be evaluated, some of which are particularly critical. First, a strong grid that is mainly supplied by renewables is essential to meet the increased demand from EV charging without needing to rely on fossil fuels. Second, the affordability of EVs and the availability of widespread charging networks are crucial. Third, a comprehensive policy framework that includes incentives for EV adoption and regulations for the EV market is necessary to guide the shift and encourage both public and private sector investment. Finally, an assessment of the availability of skilled labour, the transition's impact on the existing automotive industry, and the development of plans for retraining and job creation to minimise economic disruption.

• In North Africa, Morocco is emerging as a strong contender. It has a national strategy for electric mobility that includes incentives for both buyers and manufacturers. The country is also investing heavily in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power, which will be crucial to supporting the increased electricity demand from EVs. Morocco is also expanding its charging infrastructure and localising EV battery manufacturing.

• Egypt is also making progress with incentives like reduced import tariffs and tax exemptions for EVs. It is localising EV manufacturing and has partnered with Chinese EV makers. The government has even revived some of its dysfunctional plants to start manufacturing EVs. However, Egypt needs a more comprehensive policy framework and significant investment in charging infrastructure to catch up with Morocco.

• West Africa presents a mixed picture. Ghana shows promise with its relatively stable grid and the introduction of EV incentives. But charging infrastructure development lags, relying heavily on private sector initiatives. Nigeria faces an even steeper uphill climb, with limited EV-specific policies, a nascent charging infrastructure, and significant challenges with grid reliability and access to electricity.

• East Africa is home to pioneers like Ethiopia, which has already banned fuel vehicle imports, and Rwanda, which has banned fuel motorcycles. Kenya is also making significant progress, with a growing charging infrastructure and a relatively strong grid with a high share of renewable energy. However, greater government support and investment are needed to accelerate the transition. Uganda, while exploring EV incentives, requires more concrete policies and investment in charging infrastructure to gain momentum.

• Southern Africa reveals a diverse landscape. South Africa, despite its growing charging infrastructure, faces challenges with grid capacity and reliability. Stronger policy support and grid investment are crucial to unlocking its potential for a fuel vehicle ban. Namibia and Botswana, with limited EV-specific policies and nascent charging infrastructure, are in the early stages of EV adoption. Both countries need to develop comprehensive EV strategies and address infrastructure challenges to accelerate their transition.

Our take

• In our review, it is clear that Morocco and Egypt seem to be more ready for a fuel vehicle import ban. South Africa follows closely, with the only challenge being the lack of grid capacity to handle EV charging demand. Ghana and Kenya could follow, but their markets need time to mature, especially in localising EV manufacturing.

• The need to ban fuel vehicles, of course, won't be fully dependent on what we consider crucial. Sometimes a country's politics plays a central role, and policy changes can happen abruptly. Ethiopia's fuel ban did not seem to consider all the critical issues; politics ruled. Rwanda's phased approach is more thought-out and realistic

• Fuel vehicle import bans must not be based purely on global pressure or the need for decarbonisation. There is more to it. There are local industries and jobs to protect. A phased approach could work well. Countries like Kenya can apply this effectively to motorcycles, starting the ban in its capital, Nairobi.