EV consumer prices ease in September

From the newsletter

Electric vehicle consumer prices have decreased by 0.57% in the past month as measured by the change in prices in a representative basket of products tracked by Mobility Rising. They include EV prices, consumer financing costs and fees for powering options. The prices are collected monthly by our data analysts in East, West, North and southern Africa. 

• The Mobility Rising Price Index declined from 1003.41 in August to 997.67 in September. It is the lowest since we started tracking consumer prices in May this year.  

• The major driver of the decline in consumer prices was a 4.14% decrease in EV prices in Kenya. In South Africa, EV prices also went down by 0.27% during the period. 

More details

• The price of BYD Atto 3 in Kenya dropped by 11.8% in September from August, while the price of BYD Dolphin fell by 11.6%, and the BYD Seal by almost 2%. Similarly, the price of the Neta V declined by 1.5%. Kenya recorded the highest volatility in prices compared to South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria. 

• Price changes in South Africa were more subtle compared to Kenya. In the two-wheeler segment, Ultra Scooter’s electric motorcycle rose by 1.5%, from R64,700 ($3,684) to R65,700 ($3,742). In the four-wheeler category, the MG Cyberster dropped by 0.7%, from R1,410,000 ($80,321) to R1,400,000 ($79,755). 

• Over the last three months, EV loans in Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria have been largely stable. This stability offers buyers predictability in their monthly instalments. Bank loans are significantly more expensive in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, than in Kenya, averaging around 32% per annum. However, asset finance loans are slightly more affordable relative to Kenya, with rates generally between 32% and 34%. 

• Interest rates in South Africa, which is Africa’s largest EV market, are much lower than in East and West Africa, ranging from about 7% to 9% annually, making South Africa the most favorable market for EV loans out of the three. It also has the most mature credit market on the continent, and hosts the majority of Africa’s largest commercial banks.  

• While we have not seen major changes in the cost of financing in recent months, this could change soon. We could see lower lending rates in Kenya and South Africa, where their respective apex banks have lowered the benchmark interest rates. In Nigeria however, rates are expected to remain steady as the Central Bank of Nigeria has kept the benchmark rates at 27.25% for one year.

• Egypt has announced a major increase in EV charging prices, which will increase costs for consumers, but we expect charging prices to be stable in Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria. EV prices could continue to come down in Kenya, reflecting lower global prices. In South Africa, the growing competition has exerted a downward pressure on EV prices. 

Our take

• The aggressive price cuts by major brands like BYD in Kenya and South Africa are a clear signal of intent to capture market share. This could force other importers and dealers to lower their prices to remain competitive. 

• With already low interest rates potentially decreasing further, EV adoption in South Africa is set for steady growth as financing remains highly accessible. Conversely, Nigeria's cripplingly high interest rates will keep EVs out of reach for most potential buyers, regardless of vehicle price drops. 

• Egypt's decision to hike charging prices is a stark reminder that the overall cost of running an EV can be volatile. We can expect consumers and businesses to start paying closer attention not just to the sticker price, but to the long-term operational costs.