Op-ed: Are EV mandates Africa’s opportunity or a future missed?

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Africa’s path to electric mobility is not merely an environmental necessity but an economic opportunity, writes Warren Ondanje, the Managing Director of the Africa E-Mobility Alliance (AfEMA). Ethiopia and Rwanda, he argues, are prime examples of how EV mandates can reduce oil dependency and stimulate local investment. 

• AfEMA connects stakeholders in electric mobility ecosystems across Africa, driving awareness about the rapidly growing sector, activating markets, and catalysing advocacy efforts to transform the continent’s transportation landscape into a zero-emission sector.

• Warren is an experienced professional in the electric mobility sector and has served nearly five years in his current role at AfEMA. An engineer by profession, he previously served as the manager for EV company ARC Ride’s operations in Kenya. 

By Warren Ondanje

Africa stands at a critical crossroads as the rest of the world accelerates toward electric mobility. Will the continent seize the moment to lead in EV adoption, or will it become a dumping ground for obsolete ICE vehicles? The decisions made now—between 2025 and 2035—will define Africa’s energy security, economic resilience, and environmental sustainability for generations to come.

While challenges remain, Africa is not starting from scratch. Forward-thinking policies, such as Ethiopia’s bold ICE vehicle ban and Rwanda’s transformative shift to electric motorcycles, signal that the continent is already taking steps to shape its future. Yet, to capitalise on this momentum, Africa must embrace supply-side EV mandates that drive local innovation, infrastructure investment, and economic growth. The window of opportunity is narrow but ripe for transformation.

EV mandates are already here

Ethiopia’s ICE ban

Ethiopia made history in January 2024 by becoming the first country to ban ICE vehicle imports. With annual fossil fuel imports exceeding $6 billion, over half of which is spent on vehicle fuel, this policy aims to redirect spending toward domestic energy independence. Ethiopia’s abundant renewable resources—90% of its electricity comes from hydropower—position it to power its transportation system sustainably. However, challenges persist, including limited charging infrastructure and skills gaps among EV mechanics.

Rwanda’s electric motorcycle revolution

In Kigali, motorcycles account for 20% of all urban trips. Rwanda’s policy to halt new registrations of petrol-powered motorcycles for public transport and allow only electric models could save it up to 9 billion Rwandan francs annually on fuel imports, compared to 14 billion francs needed for domestically produced electricity.

Rwanda’s success is underpinned by private-sector innovation. Companies like Ampersand are driving the rollout of affordable electric motorcycles and battery-swapping stations. Pilot programs retrofitting existing motorbikes add an affordable, scalable pathway for current operators. Rwanda is proving that targeted policies and collaboration can reshape urban transport and reduce emissions.

What are supply-side mandates and why do they matter?

Supply-side mandates require automakers to produce and sell a specific percentage of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). These policies address market failures by setting clear targets, providing certainty for manufacturers and investors, and driving economies of scale in EV production.

Global examples illustrate their impact:

• California: ZEV mandates drove EVs to account for 13.3% of new car sales.

• China: The NEV mandate propelled China to dominate 60% of the global EV market in 2023.

• European Union: CO₂ emission standards spurred BEV sales to grow from 1.9% to 5.4% in just one year.

Mandates can stimulate investment, innovation, and affordability for Africa while accelerating climate goals.

Why two-wheelers and public transport matter for Africa

Two-wheelers

Motorcycle taxis are essential for daily mobility in cities like Nairobi and Kampala. Transitioning to electric motorcycles can double operators’ daily profits, saving over $11 per day in fuel and maintenance costs.

Public transport

In cities where public transport accounts for over 40% of trips, electrifying buses and minibuses delivers significant savings. For instance, Kenyan operators report 60% lower operational costs with electric buses than diesel.

These segments are high-emission and high-impact—electrification benefits the environment, urban air quality, and economic livelihoods.

What happens when EV mandates are in place?

•  Innovation and Competition: China’s NEV mandate reduced EV battery costs by 85% between 2010 and 2022.

•  Infrastructure Certainty: California’s policies spurred investments in 152,000 public chargers, with a target of 250,000 by 2025.

• Grid Resilience: Programs like Oakland’s Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) electric school buses provide backup power during peak demand.

• Knock-On Economic Benefits: Used EV batteries fuel the growing energy storage market.

• Off-Grid Solutions: Solar-powered charging stations bridge the gap in underserved regions, enhancing rural electrification.

What Africa must do to lead

•  Set Long-Term Targets: Link mandates to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for climate goals.

• Phased Mandates: Introduce time-based, volume-based, and variety-based targets for EV adoption.

• Support Infrastructure: Ensure charging interoperability and enforce robust safety and regulatory standards.

• Reduce Fossil Fuel Dependency: Quantify savings from reduced imports to strengthen national reserves.

Africa’s path to electric mobility is not merely an environmental necessity but an economic opportunity. Countries like Ethiopia and Rwanda have shown that bold supply-side mandates can reduce fossil fuel dependency, stimulate investment, and reshape urban mobility. With the 2025–2035 decade set to define the global transportation landscape, Africa cannot afford to lag. EV mandates will play an important role in accelerating markets globally. Africa must lean on this global momentum to build infrastructure, both physically, economically, politically, and environmentally. The time is now.