Plug-in hybrids shine as EVs slump in South Africa

May 28, 2025

From the newsletter

Plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales jumped 80% in Q1 of 2025 in South Africa, even as sales of pure electric vehicles slumped 16%. Fresh industry data shows that 276 electric vehicles were sold during the period, a decline from 330 in Q1 of 2024. On the other hand, PHEVs surged in popularity, with 241 units sold compared to 141 units during the same period last year.  

  • PHEVs are gaining popularity in Africa, where EV infrastructure is still developing. They offer the flexibility of running on electricity for short trips while relying on fuel for longer distances, making them more practical in areas with limited charging stations.

  • The growing popularity of PHEVs poses a threat to the sales of pure EVs as they are also cheaper. However, declining prices and the increase in charging stations across Africa may give pure EVs an edge over PHEVs in the long term.

More details

  • The first quarter’s performance puts PHEV sales on course to surpass 2024’s record sales of 728 units. Similarly, sales of pure electric vehicles are on course to fall below the record 1,257 units sold in 2024 if Q1’s performance is replicated in the subsequent quarters. The figures, released by Naamsa this week, exclude sales from BYD, which does not declare its local sales figures publicly.

  • This means that South Africa’s PHEV and EV market is likely bigger than the reported figures if you include sales from BYD, now the world’s largest EV manufacturer, whose vehicles have recently gained traction in the country. That notwithstanding, BMW remains the biggest PHEV seller in South Africa.

  • In 2024, BMW’s X1 was the best-selling PHEV in South Africa, selling 145 units. The German automaker also took second place as well, with its X3 registering 97 units sold. The PHEV version of the BMW X3 is built in the South African capital Pretoria.

  • Other top-selling PHEVs include BMW’s X5, which was joint 3rd with the Volvo XC60, with both models registering 74 units. South Africa is also home to US automaker Ford’s PHEV Ranger pickup truck factory. The introduction of the vehicle is expected to be a hit in the local market.

  • Overall, traditional hybrids are the best-selling new energy vehicles in South Africa. In Q1 2025, their sales in the country grew 15% year on year to 2,970 units, representing 85% of the NEV total.

  • Besides South Africa, other African countries such as Morocco, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya and Egypt are seeing sharp growth in electric vehicle sales, including PHEVs, though their market shares remain relatively small. 

  • Even as sales grow, the range of PHEVs is increasing significantly as automakers respond to stricter emissions regulations and consumer demand for better electric-only performance. For instance, the average electric range of PHEVs has grown from 53 km in 2017 to 80 km today.

  • Globally, PHEVs are expected to see moderate growth in the next few years. The global PHEV market is projected to reach $302.7 billion by 2029, growing at an annual rate of 1.32%. China remains the largest market, generating $166 billion in revenue in 2025. European markets, particularly Norway and the UK, continue to lead in adoption.

Our take

  • PHEVs will likely continue their short-term dominance over pure EVs. This is primarily due to their price advantage, the flexibility they offer with limited charging infrastructure, and the growing range of new, more affordable models like the BYD Sealion 6 and upcoming Ford Ranger PHEV.

  • Despite the surges in PHEV sales, traditional hybrids still represent the vast majority (85%) of NEV sales in South Africa. Their consistent growth indicates a strong consumer preference for this less infrastructure-dependent option. This segment will continue to provide a stable foundation for NEV adoption while the EV and PHEV markets mature.

  • While facing a decline in Q1 2025, pure EVs' long-term prospects are tied to several critical factors. Declining prices of pure EVs as more affordable models emerge and a significant increase in charging stations across Africa could eventually give them an edge.