South Africa dominates in regional EV growth

From the newsletter

In the third part of our EV market assessment series, we focus on Southern Africa. Here, mineral wealth and resource potential define the landscape for EV adoption. The region has unique dynamics: South Africa leads the way unchallenged. Its industrial base and population size offer a ready market and a foundation of automotive expertise.

• Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Namibia are closely ranked, each possessing unique strengths in the EV and battery industries. These countries appear to be forging a different path than South Africa—one that, with strategic planning, could yield substantial gains in the EV sector.

• Currently, BYD in South Africa is the only company in the region to rank among the continent's top ten EV manufacturers. Electric motorcycle adoption remains low, and policies supporting EVs are minimal outside of South Africa.

More details

• South Africa’s advanced manufacturing capabilities give it a clear lead in the region, with Botswana emerging as a highly potential market due to its focused government initiatives. Zimbabwe and Zambia may take longer to develop their EV ecosystems, but their resource advantages could see them become key EV battery suppliers. Namibia, while small, remains vital as a mineral supplier.

• Meanwhile, Botswana is punching above its weight, aiming to compete with the heavyweights. Despite its small population, the country has positioned itself as a rising hub for EV-related industries. Botswana's forward-thinking approach has already attracted significant investment—$26 million for EV battery production. 

• Recent government initiatives to establish an EV assembly plant highlight a clear commitment to building an ecosystem from the ground up. With a population of just 2.5 million and an urbanisation rate of 75.1%, the odds may seem stacked against them, but this bold gamble could pay off in the long run.

• Zimbabwe and Zambia aren’t producing many EVs yet; they lack the talent and the funding. However, if all goes well, they’re poised to become giants in the EV battery supply chain. Tied in our rankings, both nations hold immense potential to shape the global EV battery market.

•  Zimbabwe has Africa’s largest lithium reserves, backed by over $1.4 billion in investments. Its ban on raw lithium exports signals a clear intent to build a local battery industry. Zambia, on the other hand, leverages its status as a copper powerhouse with significant cobalt reserves, bolstered by government initiatives to explore lithium development.

• Both countries, however, face hurdles—Zimbabwe grapples with persistent power shortages, and Zambia requires better infrastructure to unlock its potential. Their heavy reliance on hydroelectric dams has been increasingly strained by climate change. Luckily, with the minerals to build batteries for energy storage, they'll be fully charged before the Zambezi runs dry.

• Namibia is small but resource-rich, yet its EV sector remains largely dormant. Ranking lowest in our assessment, the country still holds significant potential thanks to its vast deposits of lithium, cobalt, and rare earth minerals. These resources position Namibia as a key player in supporting the global EV supply chain. However, with a small population and minimal local demand, the focus is likely to remain on exports and upstream supply chain contributions rather than developing a domestic EV market.

Our take

• Southern Africa’s EV narrative is less about rapid adoption and more about its pivotal global significance. The region’s vast mineral wealth, essential for EV battery production, positions it as a cornerstone of the EV supply chain. If managed wisely, it could become the beating heart of the global EV revolution.

• As the demand for EVs surges worldwide, Southern Africa’s role in this ecosystem will only grow more vital. Strategic policies to tackle infrastructure and energy challenges will be key to unlocking its immense potential and securing its place in the future of mobility.

• Meanwhile, South Africa is likely to maintain its lead in the EV sector within the region, at least until the mineral-rich nations rise to their potential.

• Please see the numerical results from our ranking in the table below: