We calculate the EV pecking order in East Africa

From the newsletter

Markets develop at different speeds. So who is winning? We’ve applied a numeric methodology to rank how advanced the top five East African EV markets are at the moment. Our results show that Kenya clearly comes first, followed by Rwanda. Then Ethiopia and Uganda, followed by Tanzania at the rear.

• Kenya has the highest level of investment and the most senior talent, driving its dominant position. However, the cost of powering an EV for consumers in Kenya is still not all that attractive. 

• Despite its smaller size and less dynamic economy, Rwanda follows a similar pattern. It does less well on funding and talent than Kenya, but still significantly better than others. 

More details

• What we are judging is a country’s current level of advancement in building towards EV success. We are not looking at a country’s general suitability for a mobility transition. There are other rankings for that, including by the African E-mobility Alliance. 

• Our rankings are based on three different categories (fundraising, talent and consumer cost), each with two sub-categories. There are other factors one could include, such as government policy progress and the number of vehicles and charging stations. However, these are harder to measure and often indirectly reflected in our indicators.  

• Talent: Countries are ranked on how many top EV makers are headquartered there (zero, one or multiple companies). In addition, they are ranked on the number of senior staff these companies employ (1-100, 101-200 or 200+). 

• Fundraising: Countries are furthermore ranked on whether their EV makers have received either no venture funding this year, less than $1 million or more than $1 million. And they are ranked on how many successfully fundraising companies overall are headquartered there (none, one or multiple).

• Lastly, the countries are judged on how attractive governments are making local powering costs for drivers—both petrol for fuel vehicles and residential electricity for EVs. The ranking is based on a simple formula (the price of 1 litre of petrol divided by the price of 1 kWh). The higher the rate, the more attractive for consumers to drive EVs. 

• Kenya is the clear winner in the first two categories. It has long attracted talent and investors in a variety of sectors. Its long-standing role as a liberal hub for the region is an advantage. However, the government could do more to raise petrol prices or lower electricity costs to favour EVs more. 

• Rwanda has made a lot of progress in recent years thanks to activist policies by its government. Talent is attracted by an advantageous policy environment and investors follow where talent goes. But Rwanda too could do more to make electricity cheaper or fuel more expensive.

• Ethiopia is following Rwanda’s example of using policy levers to accelerate the transition. However, Ethiopia is years behind Rwanda. It will take a while to catch up. When it does, our ranking could well see the country leap up to or near the top. 

• Uganda and its government have focused on EVs for longer than Ethiopia. But its strategy is focused on state ownership, which comes with less or no venture funding, thus scoring lower in our ranking. It also tends to lead to slower progress than a free market where all players have the same opportunities. 

• Tanzania being ranked at the bottom of the table is unsurprising. Its government failed to invest in the way others in East Africa have. There is some consumer demand and interest in electrifying public transport. But mostly it’s satisfied from outside the country.

Our take

• National governments must recognise they are not operating in a vacuum. Company founders and venture investors look carefully at where to put their time and money. Competition for resources is impacted by national policies. Our rankings reflect that. 

• Ethiopia’s import ban on fuel vehicles earlier this year is having an impact that is not yet fully seen in investment and talent numbers. But anecdotal evidence suggests this is changing fast on the ground. We have little doubt that Ethiopia will make more news in 2025.

• Please see the numerical results from our ranking in the table below: